In a significant development ahead of the November 5 election, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals that Democrat Kamala Harris is widening her lead over Republican Donald Trump. The poll, conducted over eight days ending Wednesday, shows Harris leading Trump 45% to 41% among registered voters, marking a notable increase from the 1-point lead she held in a similar poll in July. This latest surge reflects Harris’s growing appeal among women and Hispanic voters, key demographics crucial for her campaign.
Harris’s support among women and Hispanic voters has grown significantly, with her leading Trump by 13 percentage points (49% to 36%) among both groups. This is a substantial increase from her previous 9-point lead among women and a 6-point lead among Hispanics. The data suggests that Harris’s appeal is expanding, and her campaign is resonating more with these voters compared to Trump’s.
On the other hand, Trump maintains strong support among white voters and men, though his lead among non-college-educated voters has narrowed significantly, dropping from a 14-point advantage in July to just 7 points in the latest survey. These shifts highlight the evolving dynamics of the 2024 presidential race, where both candidates are vigorously vying for key voter segments.
The recent poll results also underscore the broader landscape of the US presidential race. Since President Joe Biden ended his re-election bid following a poor debate performance in July, Harris has gained momentum against Trump in both national and swing state polls. Although national surveys provide valuable insights, the real battle lies in the state-by-state outcomes that determine the Electoral College, with critical swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona playing pivotal roles.
In these crucial battleground states, Trump holds a narrow lead of 45% to 43% over Harris. However, another Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll indicates a tighter contest, with Harris either leading or tied with Trump in these states, reflecting the high stakes and unpredictable nature of the upcoming election.
Republican campaign strategist Matt Wolking noted that the shifting poll numbers suggest a more challenging race for Trump. He emphasized the importance of Trump maintaining focus to avoid alienating undecided voters, especially those who were previously inclined to vote against Biden.
Since officially accepting the Democratic nomination, Harris has actively campaigned in key states, including Georgia, where Biden had struggled to maintain support. The enthusiasm surrounding Harris’s campaign is palpable; 73% of Democratic voters in the poll expressed increased excitement about voting in November since Harris entered the race. Notably, more Harris supporters are motivated to vote for her rather than just against Trump, a reversal from earlier trends observed with Biden’s supporters.
The enthusiasm gap, however, isn’t solely in Harris’s favor. Trump’s base remains energized, with 64% of his voters indicating they are backing him out of genuine support rather than opposition to Harris. On policy issues, voters favor Trump’s approach to managing the economy, while Harris holds a strong lead on abortion rights—a critical issue for many Democrats following the 2022 Supreme Court decision that overturned the national right to abortion.
As the election approaches, the dynamics between Harris and Trump will continue to evolve, with both campaigns working to solidify their support among key voter groups. The poll, conducted among 4,253 US adults, including 3,562 registered voters, provides a snapshot of the current landscape and highlights the growing competitiveness of the 2024 race.
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