Japan Issues Megaquake Advisory: Prepare Now

Japan Issues First-Ever ‘Megaquake’ Advisory: Prepare for the Worst

Japan has issued its first-ever “megaquake” advisory following a 7.1-magnitude earthquake off its southern coast on Thursday, which injured 14 people. This unprecedented advisory signals a high risk of a subsequent, potentially devastating earthquake of magnitude 8 or even 9.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has alerted citizens to prepare for the worst. The quake, considered a once-in-a-century event, has prompted widespread panic. People are rushing to stock up on supplies and seek safety shelters. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has canceled his four-day trip to Central Asia, choosing to remain in Japan to oversee crisis management.

What is the Advisory?

Scientists cannot predict earthquakes with certainty. However, with advanced equipment, they have been able to make forecasts about high-risk periods. The JMA has indicated that while the likelihood of a major earthquake is higher than usual, it does not guarantee that a significant quake will occur. Residents are advised to review evacuation routes and stay alert to any further warnings.

The Feared Quake

Japan, situated on the Ring of Fire, experiences approximately 1,500 earthquakes annually, most of which are minor. The current advisory is focused on the Nanakai Trough ‘subduction zone,’ where tectonic plates interact. Subduction zone faults accumulate stress over time, and a megaquake occurs when this stress is released suddenly. Scientists warn that such an event could surpass magnitude 9.

Japanese warning guidelines suggest that the probability of a large earthquake following a magnitude-7 quake within a week is roughly “once per a few hundred times,” based on a study from last year. Although the likelihood is significant enough to warrant an advisory, there is no certainty that the recent tremors will trigger a megaquake.

The central government had predicted in 2022 that a quake of this magnitude could strike within the next 30 years with a 70 percent probability. Experts warn that such a quake could result in thousands of casualties and trillions in damage, presenting a grave concern for Japan.

Aakhir Tak Editor-in-Chief

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