The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has recently investigated allegations of market manipulation and insider trading following the release of exit poll results on June 3, 2024. According to sources, SEBI has not found any evidence to support these claims. This comes after a significant rally in the stock market on June 3, followed by a sharp decline on June 4, resulting in substantial investor losses.
SEBI’s Investigation
On June 3, 2024, exit poll results indicated a favorable outcome for the ruling party, leading to a substantial rise in stock prices. However, the market experienced a severe drop on June 4, causing losses exceeding Rs 31 trillion. Trinamool Congress (TMC) Rajya Sabha MP Saket Gokhale had written to SEBI, urging an investigation into possible market manipulation and insider trading by the BJP and polling agencies.
Gokhale’s letter suggested that the dramatic fluctuations in the stock market following the exit polls could indicate potential manipulation. He requested SEBI to investigate entities or investors who might have profited from the market movements on June 3 and 4.
SEBI’s Findings
After analyzing data from all market infrastructure institutions, SEBI concluded that there was no evidence of market manipulation or insider trading on the days in question. According to SEBI sources, the data showed no unusual trading patterns or suspicious activities that could suggest tampering with the market.
The Impact of Exit Polls
Exit polls on June 3, 2024, predicted that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win around 367 seats, leading to a significant rise in the Sensex and Nifty by over 3%. However, the actual results showed the NDA securing only 293 seats, causing a 6% market decline on June 4. Gokhale argued that this discrepancy in exit poll results and actual outcomes led to abnormal market behavior, suggesting possible manipulation to influence stock prices.
Political Reactions
Gokhale’s allegations have sparked political debate, with opposition parties questioning the integrity of the exit polls and their potential impact on the stock market. The BJP and polling agencies have denied any wrongdoing, maintaining that the exit polls were conducted fairly and without any intent to manipulate market outcomes.
Despite the significant market fluctuations and substantial investor losses, SEBI’s investigation found no evidence of market manipulation or insider trading related to the exit polls. The findings provide a measure of reassurance to investors and underscore SEBI’s commitment to maintaining market integrity.
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