Exit polls predict BJP dominance in Jammu despite strong anti-incumbency wave

BJP Predicted to Maintain Dominance in Jammu Despite Anti-Incumbency

According to a recent CVoter exit poll, the BJP is likely to maintain its stronghold in Jammu despite strong anti-incumbency against the party. The exit poll indicates that the BJP may win between 27 to 31 seats, securing a vote share of 41.3 percent. The Congress-National Conference alliance is expected to secure 11 to 15 seats in the region.

The Congress, which was hoping to regain its lost ground in the Jammu division, appears unlikely to stop the BJP’s winning streak. The only consolation for Congress is that it may win a few Hindu-majority seats in Jammu this time. In the 2014 Assembly polls, Congress failed to win even a single Hindu-majority seat.

In the 2014 elections, the BJP won 25 seats in the region, catapulting it to power in Jammu and Kashmir after forming a post-poll alliance with Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP. In the recent 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP was leading in 29 Assembly segments in the Jammu region.

So, why has the Congress failed to bounce back in Jammu despite strong anti-incumbency against the BJP? Political experts attribute the BJP’s continued success to the enduring “Modi magic.” They also point to the party’s high-decibel campaign as a contributing factor.

Top BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, campaigned extensively in the region.

Conversely, Congress’s lackluster and slow campaign might have contributed to its likely poor performance. Before the third and final phase of polling, Congress’s ally Omar Abdullah raised questions about the party’s non-serious approach toward campaigning in the Jammu region.

Many Congress insiders believe that had Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi spent more time campaigning in Jammu, the party’s outcome could have been different.

For now, Congress can take solace in the fact that its pre-poll alliance with the National Conference has likely paid dividends, as exit polls predict the alliance could be close to the majority mark.