Aakhir Tak – In Shorts
- Arvind Kejriwal remains the most preferred choice for Delhi CM, but his lead has significantly dropped since 2015.
- A recent C Voter survey reveals 46% of voters prefer Kejriwal, down from nearly 70% five years ago.
- The BJP has gained substantial support, especially among the middle class, making the election contest more unpredictable.
- Anti-incumbency sentiment and the AAP’s internal controversies over issues like corruption and MCD governance are impacting Kejriwal’s campaign.
- The female vote and Congress’ potential influence on minority voters will be key factors in deciding the outcome.
Aakhir Tak – In Depth
Kejriwal’s Declining Popularity
In the latest C Voter survey, Arvind Kejriwal was preferred as the Chief Minister of Delhi by 46% of voters. While this number still positions him ahead of his rivals, it marks a significant decline from the 70% support he enjoyed in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly elections. This shift indicates that the upcoming elections may not be as straightforward for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as it was in previous years.
Survey Insights: The Changing Dynamics
The survey also revealed a rise in anti-incumbency sentiment, with 44% of voters expressing dissatisfaction with the current government. This marks a sharp contrast to 2020 when only 27% were unhappy with the government. While AAP still maintains a lead, the increased discontent, coupled with a rise in BJP support, suggests a more competitive race.
BJP’s Growing Support
BJP’s influence has notably expanded, especially among the upper and middle classes. After the Union Budget presentation, the BJP has strengthened its foothold among these groups, widening its lead. This shift could become a serious challenge for AAP, especially considering that these groups traditionally support BJP during elections.
AAP’s Struggles and Internal Controversies
The AAP’s government has faced growing criticism, particularly over issues like the “Sheesh Mahal” controversy and the governance of the Delhi Municipal Corporation (MCD). Although the AAP now controls the MCD, the problems of poor roads, garbage, and sanitation continue, which has fueled further disillusionment among voters.
The Key Role of Women Voters and Congress’ Influence
Female voters will be a decisive factor in the upcoming elections. According to the February 2024 C Voter survey, AAP still enjoys a strong lead among women, but this could shift depending on the voters’ trust in the political promises made by both parties. Additionally, if Congress manages to attract minority voters, it could further complicate AAP’s chances of securing victory.
Aakhir Tak – Key Takeaways to Remember
- Arvind Kejriwal’s popularity has decreased from the peak of 70% to 46%, indicating potential challenges for the AAP.
- BJP has gained significant ground, especially among middle and upper-middle-class voters, after the budget presentation.
- Corruption allegations and poor MCD governance have impacted AAP’s image.
- Women voters and Congress’ potential sway over minority voters could play a pivotal role in the election results.
- The election outcome has become highly uncertain, with no clear frontrunner at this stage.
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