India Expects Above-Normal Monsoon Rainfall in 2025: IMD

Aakhir Tak – In Shorts

India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts above-normal monsoon rainfall for 2025.
Seasonal rainfall is forecast at 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Key climate drivers like El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently neutral.
This positive monsoon forecast could significantly uplift India’s agricultural sector.
Below-normal rainfall is anticipated in Ladakh, Northeast India, and Tamil Nadu.

Aakhir Tak – In Depth

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India Poised for Better Rains in 2025

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released a positive outlook for 2025. It predicts above-normal monsoon rainfall across the country. This forecast brings hope, especially for the vital agricultural sector. Officials announced this significant weather prediction on Tuesday. They stated that seasonal rainfall is expected to be 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Importantly, this forecast includes a model error margin of ±5%. This India monsoon forecast is crucial for economic planning.

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Understanding Monsoon Normals

The southwest monsoon typically arrives around June 1 over Kerala. It usually withdraws by mid-September. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the projected above-normal monsoon could provide a much-needed boost. It could greatly benefit the agricultural sector. The IMD defines normal rainfall clearly. It falls between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average. This average stands at 87 cm (about 35 inches). Rainfall exceeding 104% qualifies as “above normal”. This year’s prediction fits into this higher category.

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Regional Rainfall Distribution

This year’s forecast suggests favourable conditions for most parts of India. However, the IMD notes exceptions. Some regions might not share the bounty equally. Rainfall is expected to be below normal in specific areas. These include Ladakh, the Northeast, and Tamil Nadu. These regions might face challenges during the four-month monsoon season. Therefore, water management will be crucial there. Conversely, other areas anticipate sufficient rainfall.

Favourable Climate Influences

Officials highlighted key climate factors. They stated that El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently neutral. These neutral conditions are generally considered favourable. They support a healthy monsoon season in India. El Nino involves unusual warming of Pacific surface waters. This pattern often leads to weaker monsoons. It consequently reduces rainfall in India.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is another critical factor. It concerns sea surface temperature differences in the Indian Ocean. A positive IOD phase usually enhances rainfall over India. A negative phase tends to suppress it. The current neutral state of both El Nino and IOD bodes well for Monsoon 2025. This reduces the risk of deficit rainfall significantly.

Additional Positive Signs

Beyond these major drivers, another indicator supports the positive outlook. Reduced snow cover has been observed over Eurasia and the Himalayas. Historically, lower snow accumulation in these areas correlates with stronger monsoon rainfall over India. This factor adds further confidence to the above-normal monsoon prediction. It suggests atmospheric conditions are aligning favourably.

Impact on Agriculture and Economy

With favourable ocean and atmospheric conditions lining up, the Monsoon 2025 forecast looks promising. The expected above-average rainfall is set to provide significant relief. It offers a potential boon to the agricultural sector. Good rainfall can lead to higher crop yields. It can also boost rural incomes. Furthermore, it may help control food inflation. This weather prediction provides valuable information for farmers. Policy makers can also use it for better planning. Overall, the 2025 monsoon appears likely to bring positive news for India.

Aakhir Tak – Key Takeaways to Remember

IMD forecasts an above-normal monsoon for 2025 (105% of LPA ±5%).
Key climate factors, El Nino and IOD, are currently in a favourable neutral phase.
Reduced snow cover over Eurasia/Himalayas is another positive sign for strong rainfall.
The prediction promises a significant boost for India’s crucial agricultural sector.
Some regions (Ladakh, Northeast, Tamil Nadu) might experience below-normal rainfall.